Friday, September 29, 2006
Mike Nifong and the laws of Physics
Despite all the surrounding commentary and its myriad side issues, The Duke Lacrosse Case, when reduced to its elemental basics, can be summed up as follows:
It is either a CRIME or a HOAX; it is either TRUE or FALSE.
Science does not allow a third alternative. Back when I was in the field, we were given a model based on a mathematical equation to use as an outline in investigating a crime, and it went like this. If event “X” is true (whatever event X is) then ALL events leading up to “X” MUST be true, since “X” is built from them (you cannot put all the ingredients for a chocolate cake in an oven and expect a cherry pie). Also, all events BASED on “X” MUST also be true as well. In this model, “X” serves two roles. It is both the summation of the former and the standard for the latter. Therefore, anything that does not “fit” in this equation MUST be “false" if “X” is true- it cannot be otherwise.
This entire case should be built on one very simple premise: Did a rape actually occur? If the rape did not occur, then this case should end there. Once again, it either occurred, or it didn’t. There is no such thing as a “partial” truth or an “almost” fact.
As we all saw Friday with the denial of the motion for a Bill of Particulars, supporters of the Hoax are banging their pots in a dented version of “We will Rock You” and proclaiming the “Emperor of Ambiguity” the winner. They fail to realize what the “Master of Total Disaster” has done. He has now surrendered his sword to the defense.
They think the “new and improved” 85 minutes NON-timeline means something. They fail to see the truth behind the Hoaxer’s admission. He won’t give a timeline because he CANNOT give one, as he has no way to PROVE it. The next truth should be obvious. Nifong cannot prove his timeline, and, therefore, he cannot DISPROVE the defense’s timeline either. See, the defense has this little gem that “Captain Bombastic” WISHES he had. They call this jewel SUPPORTING EVIDENCE. To quote a great man: “Hey Mikey, WHATCHA GONNA DO WHEN THE DEFENSE TIMELINE RUNS WILD ALL OVER YOU?” Let’s look at this: twenty-some player eye witnesses, time-stamped photos, photos showing watches, independent eye witnesses, electronic evidence, a hostile witness (Kim), and the two star witnesses - Mike Nifong and the accuser.
Do I hear the sound of pots dropping, teeth chattering, eyes bugging out, and tongues hitting the floor? The supporters of the Hoax scream, “NO, it can’t be!” Oh, yes it is, and there is nothing Nifong can do. Here is why. The ONLY timeline that will be presented is the DEFENSE timeline. Forget non-matching DNA, the “evidence” Nifong could have hidden, and everything else. Nifong doesn’t have a TIMELINE, and as the PROSECUTOR he can’t make his case without one. It’s very simple, regardless of his buffoonish courtroom demeanor and bad poker skill at bluffing, if Nifong can’t place the “rape” when and where he wants it, he has no case. The alleged sexual assault would have required TIME. And for the accused to be guilty within the laws of space and time in this universe, the TIME of the events MUST intersect with the PRESENCE of all those supposedly involved.
Star defense witness #1 is Mike Nifong himself. How can Nifong be a star defense witness? The answer should be obvious. Nifong is the PROSECUTOR, and he has the BURDEN of PROOF. It should be obvious to all why he had to modify the original 30 minute duration of the alleged rape. He has no workable way to insert that story into the events of the evening, so now he claims the alleged rape took 5-10 minutes. However, Nifong CANNOT show (much less prove) ANY insertion of his “redacted rape time” into the evening’s event line either. This will be demonstrated later.
Star defense witness #2 is the accuser. How can the accuser be a star defense witness? The answer should be obvious as well. She should be able to pinpoint the SEQUENCE of the alleged rape. The accuser wouldn’t be necessarily expected to know the exact TIME the alleged rape supposedly started. However, the accuser MUST put the EVENTS of the alleged assault in succession with every event of the evening. Relative to the known alibi of Seligmann, she can ONLY put the alleged rape PRIOR to his known exit. If she places it AFTER he is known to be gone, the case should end.
This “85” minute window Nifong proposes may appear “intimidating” or somehow “damning” to onlookers, but it is actually all fluff and stuff. We are going to use science to eviscerate it and see what is left. Does Nifong really have an 85 minute window during which the alleged rape could have happened? Nifong’s window starts at 11:30 PM on March 13th and ends at 12:55 AM on March 14th.Starting at 11:30 PM on March 13th and ending at 12:55 AM on March 14th, Nifong now alleges that 3 people raped the accuser in a bathroom for a period of 5-10 minutes, with multiple witnesses in the immediate area. However, the start time should be at 12:04 AM after the women finished dancing (as no one claims rape prior to the dance), and the end time should be 12:53 AM when Kim called 911. The strippers were GONE from the house when this phone call was made. Now let’s do the math. Nifong just lost 34 minutes from 11:30 PM because NO rape is alleged prior to the dance, and he lost 2 minutes from 12:55 AM because the strippers were GONE at 12:53AM. That’s 85-36= 49 minutes during which this alleged crime could have occurred, not 85 minutes. It should be noted that the math in this article is founded in Newtonian science and not Nifongian mathematics.
Let’s look at Seligmann’s alibi and the known timeline. The facts are: Seligmann made a number of phone calls starting at 12:05 AM, including a 12:14 AM call for the taxi. Seligmann was picked up by the taxi a block away at 12:19 AM, and was at the ATM at 12:24 AM. Meanwhile back at the house, there was a 12:26 AM call to the escort service from the accuser’s cell phone. Kim Roberts called 911 to report being racially slurred, but insisted she was not hurt in any way at 12:53 AM. Now, let’s do some more math. There is no question Seligmann was picked up by the taxi at 12:19 AM and was at the ATM at 12:24 AM. There is too much evidence from too many sources for Nifong to try and claim otherwise. The strippers stayed at 610 Buchanan for 34 more minutes (12:53-12:19= 34) after Seligmann was gone. It defies common sense that the accuser would stick around for more than half an hour after an alleged violent attack. And never mind that the burden of proof is on the prosecution, not the defense. All Nifong can do is try and poke holes in Seligmann’s alibi, instead of having any evidence to indicate Seligmann did anything wrong. I am amazed by Nifong’s outrageous claim that Seligman only has to account for 90 minutes of his life. Actually, it is NIFONG who has to do the “accounting,” and it seems MATH isn’t his strong suit.
What were Kim and the accuser doing after they finished dancing at 12:04AM? In her April 6 handwritten statement, the accuser claims that she and Kim left the house after finishing the dance, went to the car, but were coaxed back inside. The accuser alleges the attack happened after she and Kim returned to the house. There is no allegation of an attack before the dance. According to Kim’s statement to the police, after they finished dancing, Kim and the accuser went into the bathroom together, and stayed there for some time. Kim eventually left the house, and was followed by the accuser to the car. This is confirmed by the neighbor, Jason Bissey, who observed that 20-30 players were outside in the alley between Bissey’s residence and 610 Buchanan from 12:20 to 12:30 AM. One of the players was leaning into the driver’s side window of the car, apparently having a conversation with the women inside the car. Jason Bissey also observed the accuser exiting the car, saying she wanted to retrieve her shoe around 12:30 AM. Again, it defies common sense, that the accuser would try to get back into the house to retrieve her shoe after an alleged violent attack. Consistent with Bissey’s statement, a time-stamped photograph shows the accuser on the stairs, with her purse, smiling, at 12:30 AM.
Let’s summarize our math analysis. All we need is the TIME. It is known that Seligmann made a number of phone calls starting at 12:05AM. It is also KNOWN that Seligmann was at the ATM at 12:24AM; Nifong will not be able to dispute that. Since Seligmann was picked up by a taxi a block away from 610 Buchanan at 12:19 AM, he had to leave the house before that. This puts Seligman GONE before the time both Kim and the accuser were outside the house, in the car, at 12:20AM-12:30AM. Neighbor Bissey states that the accuser exited the car intending to retrieve her shoe around 12:30AM. The time-stamped photograph shows the accuser on the stairs with her purse, smiling, at 12:30 AM. It is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for Seligmann to have raped the accuser. Numbers do NOT lie and 1+1=2 in every point of this universe.
The extraneous things like the missing shoe, missing money, and the accuser’s second return to the car are irrelevant. Whether these events are true or false have no bearing on the charges of RAPE accompanied by kidnapping.
It is a fact that Seligmann was NO LONGER PRESENT after he walked a block to be picked up by a taxi. It is also said that Collin Finnerty has an alibi as well. Based on the timeline alone, given the known facts and applying reasonable probability to the events, it seems that the word HOAX is highly appropriate because of the sheer improbability of even a possibility of a rape occurring during the convergent windows placing all parties at the same point in time.
Kim’s account of the evening will only help the defense in the sequence of events. Furthermore, her testimony is useless to Nifong because she has gone on record in every account stating she did NOT witness a rape. The other players will also assist in establishing the events of the evening as well.
In this case, there were three charges listed in the original warrants - rape/sexual offense, kidnapping, and robbery. Robbery would be impossible to prove because there is no evidence any player stole anything (finding a few $20’s in the house does not establish robbery, especially since it cannot be proven that the money is the EXACT money the accuser claims was stolen from her, and never mind that the accuser HERSELF initially claimed KIM stole her money, NOT the boys). That actually forces the question of WHY the robbery charge was brought against the players to begin with. It really doesn’t matter because the robbery charge has gone away. The charge of kidnapping is the lesser included in the rape charge (the accuser alleges she was forced into the bathroom for the purpose of rape- there is no other allegation of kidnapping) and as such, if there is no “rape” there CANNOT be a kidnapping.
The above timeline, combined with the strength of the alibi, demonstrate that the probability of a rape in this case is simply ZERO. Mike Nifong can speak in Nifongese, bluff, snort, giggle and give evasive answers all he wants. In addition to everything else, the defense’s greatest witness is FATHER TIME, and he's Nifong’s worst enemy.
Submitted by: Longtabber