Occam's Razor II

Six weeks ago, we presented a post entitled Occam's Razor. In this previous post, we theorized that to believe that the Duke case is a Hoax requires one to simply accept that the accuser is lying. We further postulated that to believe an assault occurred demands explanation for each of the many inconsistencies presented by the accuser, the prosecutor, the police, and the evidence as it is known. In total, we presented fifty-one contradictions that would need to be resolved before the District Attorney and the accuser could be believed. Over the past several weeks, new information has become available and the DA has presented an entirely different Theory of the Hoax. The additional information, the reinvention of the Hoax, and continued analysis have offered additional items which must be resolved if a person is to believe that the Hoax is not a Hoax.

Contradictions between the accuser’s written statement and statements of her “outcry witness”:

1. Kim Roberts, the “outcry witness,” did not seek help for the accuser when calling 911 to report being racially slurred when driving-while walking by 610 N. Buchanan, despite allegedly being told by the accuser that she had been hurt by the young men, and allegedly offering to get help.
NBC 17: Audio of Ms. Roberts' 911 Call
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

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2. Despite allegedly offering to get help for the accuser, Ms. Roberts not only did not mention harm or needing help during her 911 call, but also took approximately 30 minutes to get to the Kroger parking lot, and did so with the purpose of removing the accuser from her car.
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

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3. In her written statement, the accuser claims that she was physically separated from Ms. Roberts by a total of six men, yet Ms. Roberts claimed she re-entered the house without the accuser.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs

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4. In her written statement, the accuser claims that she was physically separated from Ms. Roberts by a total of six men, yet Mr. Nifong has claimed that there is no evidence to support charges against anyone but the three accused.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
CBS: DA Wants Duke Players' ID Card Records
WRAL: Every Member Of Duke Lacrosse Team A Potential Witness

“Nifong: We’re not trying to investigate them. We’re not trying to say that there are crimes that we want to prove that they’re guilty of.”

5. In her written statement, the accuser claims that Ms. Roberts was physically restrained by three different men while the accuser was being dragged into the bathroom by the three accused. Yet, Ms. Roberts indicated initially that the suggestion that a rape had occurred was a “crock”, and has repeatedly stated that she can’t say a rape occurred, despite the accuser's claim that Roberts witnessed the initiation of the attack.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

6. Ms. Roberts is alleged by the accuser to have been outside the bathroom door during the alleged rape, and to have entered the bathroom immediately afterwards. Yet, Ms. Roberts claimed that the rape allegation was a “crock”, and that she cannot say that a rape occurred.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

7. Ms. Roberts, six months after giving her statement to police, confirms in an interview with ’60 Minutes’ that her initial statement, which contradicts the accuser’s conflicting police statements, of what she witnessed and what she did not witness remains the same now as it was then.
KC Johnson: The Roberts Bombshells

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8. Ms. Roberts disputes the accuser’s allegation that Ms. Roberts was restrained by three men at the start of the alleged assault.
MSNBC: Duke accuser lying, second stripper says

9. Ms. Roberts disputes the accuser’s allegations that Ms. Roberts entered the bathroom, dressed the accuser, and helped the accuser out of the house immediately after the alleged assault.
ESPN: Second dancer says accuser is lying

10. Ms. Roberts confirms that neither the police nor the prosecutor interviewed her with regard to the contradictions between her police statement and the accuser’s.

ABC: Second Duke dancer contradicts accuser

“Were you holding on to each other? Were you pulled apart?""Nope," Roberts replied, who added that she was hearing that account of events for the first time.”

12. Ms. Roberts confirms that the accuser was unhurt when she left the house.
"She obviously wasn't hurt...because she was fine."
TJN Kim Roberts 6.0

Total Absence of Relevant DNA Evidence:

13. The alleged brutal, 30 minute, condom-less gang rape, during which the accuser claimed two alleged attackers ejaculated, left no traces of DNA from the three accused on, in, or near the accuser.
DA Plans To Proceed With Case Despite No DNA Matches

"No DNA material from any young man tested was present on the body of the complaining woman, not present within her body, not present on the surface of her body, and not present on any of her belongings," [Wade} Smith said in a prepared statement.

14. There is a total absence of any DNA from the three accused on the accuser, despite the fact that the SANE exam took place within several hours of the alleged attack, and the accuser had neither bathed nor changed her clothes.
Duke Lacrosse DNA: Mystery Man Revealed

15. The alleged brutal, 30 minute, condom-less gang rape left no DNA from the accuser on the floor, towels, or rugs in the bathroom.
District Attorney: Duke lacrosse case 'not going away'

16. Despite allegedly having spit out the oral attacker’s ejaculate onto a bathroom rug, neither the rug nor the accuser’s mouth retained DNA from the alleged attacker, and the rug did not show traces of the accuser’s saliva.
District Attorney: Duke lacrosse case 'not going away'

17. No DNA from the alleged condom-less attackers was recovered from vaginal swabs of the accuser, yet her boyfriend’s DNA was.
Duke Lacrosse DNA: Mystery Man Revealed

18. The only person whose DNA was found within the accuser is neither suspected nor charged.
Duke Lacrosse DNA: Mystery Man Revealed
CBS: DA Wants Duke Players' ID Card Records

19. The only person whose semen was found on the bathroom floor, where the assault was alleged to have occurred, is neither suspected nor charged.
Two Duke lacrosse DNA tests are positive
CBS: DA Wants Duke Players' ID Card Records

20. Nearly two hundred wrongfully convicted men and women have been exonerated by DNA and countless others have not been charged after being exonerated by DNA yet DA Nifong asks, “How Does DNA exonerate you?” as an excuse to continue his false prosecution.
How Does DNA exonerate you?

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Absence of Evidence of Physical Trauma:

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21. Vaginal “trauma” turned out to be diffuse edema, despite the alleged brutal, 30 minute gang rape, and despite the accuser's industrious activities prior to the party.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
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22. The alleged brutal, 30 minute gang rape, which the accuser claimed also included kicking in the butt, physical striking, strangulation and her head hitting a sink, left no visible bruises, nor any signs of physical trauma detectable upon medical examination by multiple nurses and doctors, except for three small non-bleeding scratches on the accuser's leg and foot.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
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23. Anal trauma is not reported by the SANE report, despite the accuser’s allegations of anal rape, and despite Sgt. Gottlieb’s claim in his belated typed notes that the SANE nurse informed him of it.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
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24. Photographs taken by DPD, and notes taken by the DPD photographer, do not indicate any bruising despite the accuser’s claims of a violent physical assault.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
NY Times Article (registration required)

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25. Officer Himan claims the SANE Nurse-in-Training, after telling him over the phone that due to HIPPA Laws she was unable to divulge patient information, she proceeded to state that there were signs consistent with a sexual assault during her test.
Cheshire Motion
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
Discovery page 1206, Himan notes page 1

26. Officer Himan and Sergeant Gottlieb claim the SANE Nurse-in-Training told them that there were signs consistent with a sexual assault during her test, yet her own report does not state anything of the sort.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs

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Identification Failures and Misdeeds

27. The accuser failed to identify Reade Seligmann as her attacker the first time she viewed his photograph in a lineup.
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

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28. The accuser was only 70% certain that Mr. Seligmann was even at the party, yet 100% certain that he forced her to perform oral sex.
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

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29. The accuser failed to identify David Evans as her attacker the first time she viewed his photo in a lineup on March 21.
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID

30. The accuser failed to identify anyone as her attacker in the first two lineups, when she was advised that “the person who committed the crime may or may not be included” in the line-up.
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case
Transcript Suggests Alleged Rape Victim ID'd Four Duke Lacrosse Players
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID

31. The accuser identified 4 attackers, yet alleges she was attacked by 3 men. Only 3 men were indicted.
Transcript Suggests Alleged Rape Victim ID'd Four Duke Lacrosse Players
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID

32. The accuser made identifications only after being informed by police that all of her possible choices were believed to have been in attendance at the party.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
Transcript Suggests Alleged Rape Victim ID'd Four Duke Lacrosse Players
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID
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33. The accuser claimed David Evans had a mustache on the night of the party, yet David Evans has never worn a mustache.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID

34. The first two photo lineup attempts were neither video taped, nor well documented. Yet, the final, contrary to procedure event, was meticulously documented and videotaped.
KC Johnson Discusses the Photo ID
Rape case lineup facts are sought
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35. The only player identified by the accuser, in both the March lineup attempts and the April manufactured lineup, as having been in attendance at the party on two of the three lineup attempts was not even in Durham, let alone at the party.
N&O: Experts “Lineups Likely Tainted”

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36. Despite the accuser naming an alleged attacker as “Matt” and despite the accuser coincidentally identifying a Matt as an assailant, Matt was not charged perhaps because the police had already invented a fake name theory, perhaps because the accuser had previously failed to identify this “Matt,” perhaps because she identified this Matt as “Brett” or perhaps because three other players more suitable to the invented theory were also identified and four is one of the only number of attackers not included in the accusers varying versions of events.
N&O: The Problems with Matt

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37. The accuser misidentifies the person who made the broom comment that precipitated the end of the dancer’s performance.
N&O: The Problems with Matt

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38. The accuser identifies Collin Finnerty as an alleged assailant despite his physical appearance being exactly opposite the descriptions the accuser gave to Inv. Himan during her initial police interview.

N&O: The Problems with Matt

“The accuser described her three alleged assailants to police March 16, two and a half days after the lacrosse party. According to Investigator Benjamin Himan's handwritten notes, the assailants were Adam ("white male short, red cheeks fluffy hair chubby face brn"), Matt ("heavyset, short hair cut, 260-270") and Brett ("Chubby").”

“Finnerty, 6 feet 3 inches and 175 pounds, fit none of these descriptions. He is tall and slender, with blond hair and freckles.”

39. The accuser “recognized” 15 players at one viewing but didn't recognize them at another.
N&O: Experts “Lineups Likely Tainted”

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40. Of the four players the accuser identified with certainty in March as having been at the party, the only one she again identified in April was not in attendance while the three she had previously recognized, she failed to recognize in April.
N&O Conflicting Identifications

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41. Two of the four alleged attackers the accuser identified in April were not identified by her in March.
N&O Conflicting Identifications

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42. Sgt. Gottlieb’s miraculously appearing notes typed from “memory” four months after the fact indicate that the accuser’s descriptions included one that would resemble Collin Finnerty yet Finnerty was not included in any of the six photo arrays shown to the accuser in two separate March photo lineup attempts.
Enough from Duff

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43. In addition to the player misidentified in both March and April, at least one other player was recognized as having been at the party yet was not present.
N&O Conflicting Identifications

Reade Seligmann’s Alibi

44. Reade Seligmann was photographed by a bank ATM camera one mile away from the scene of the alleged attack at a time the assault was supposed to take place.
Motion for Recusal

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45. Reade Seligmann used his cell phone almost continually, beginning less than a minute after the dancers stopped their performance.
Motion for Recusal
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46. Reade Seligamann was in the company of Robert Wellington, and then both Robert Wellington and a taxi driver, from minutes after the dancers stopped performing, until returning to his dorm.
Motion for Recusal

47. At 12:30, the accuser is photographed outside holding a bag/purse. Yet, it is alleged that during the supposed 30 minute rape her possessions were taken from her.
Woman altered stories of rape

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48. Time-stamped photographs indicate that the accuser was unharmed and outside of 610 Buchanan as late as 12:30 am.
N&O: Call adds mystery to lacrosse case

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49. The accuser called an escort service at 12:26am using the phone allegedly taken from her during the attack.
N&O: Call adds mystery to lacrosse case

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50. Bissey’s statements, time-stamped photographs, phone records, an ATM photo, receipts, an electronic card swipe, 911 calls and multiple witness statements establish a timeline of the evening that offers no window of opportunity for Reade Seligmann to have participated in the alleged rape.
Notice of Alibi Defense
Motion for Recusal

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51. In an effort to discredit the airtight alibi of Mr. Seligmann, DA Nifong incredibly invents a five minute time frame, based not on the accuser’s statements nor on any other known evidence and in direct contradiction to the several affidavits sworn to by Inv. Himan, in direct contradiction to the accuser‘s own statements, and apparently in contradiction to the “evidence“ presented to the grand jury.
The Exit, Return and Five Minute Theory
Nifong Knows
What Nifong Kows
Reinventing the Hoax

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52. Also in an effort to discredit the airtight alibi of Mr. Seligmann, DA Nifong extends the timeline to include the possibility that the assault occurred prior to the accuser’s arrival and after her departure.
The Exit, Return and Five Minute Theory
Nifong Knows
What Nifong Kows
Reinventing the Hoax .

Investigation and Prosecution Curiosities, Short Comings, and Funny-Smelling
Apparent Misdeeds, not previously listed above:

53. Mr. Nifong has publicly promoted theories of the case not only unsupported by, but often contradicted by, his own “evidence”.
The DA and the documents

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54. Himan’s probable cause affidavit contradicts statements from witnesses, medical evidence, and his own investigative actions.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
An Affiant's Belief

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55. Gottlieb’s notes were withheld from the defense initially, not written contemporaneously, and apparently produced to conform to many, if not all, of the holes in the persecution’s case.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case
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56. Mr. Nifong refused to meet with defense attorneys to look at exculpatory evidence.
Motion for Recusal

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57. Ms. Roberts received favorable bond treatment on the day the indictments were brought. Shortly thereafter, she began singing a different tune about the opportunity for an assault to have occurred.
Hearing delayed for 2nd lacrosse dancer
Kim Roberts on NPR

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58. Mr. Nifong apparently disguised the existence of a toxicology test, which disputed his “date rape drug” theories of the case, from the defendants, their attorneys, the public, and the court.
Test: Lacrosse case accuser free of controlled substances
Date-rape drug test negative in lacrosse case

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59. Alibi witness cabbie Elmostafa was intimidated by the persecution in an apparent attempt to dissuade his testimony, and charges were brought against him in an apparent effort to impeach his testimony.
KC Johnson on Elmo

60. All three of the accused have passed polygraph tests, yet the accuser apparently was never given one.
Evans Passed Polygraph
Finnerty Passed Polygraph
All Three Players Passed Polygraphs
Everett Encourages Nifong To Give Accuser Polygraph

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61. Despite the persecution’s attempts to coerce and intimidate the lacrosse team by violating the “no contact” rule, publicly suggesting that if they were innocent they would not need lawyers, by creating ruses to encourage them to give false testimony, by threatening charges, by re-initiating old resolved charges, by publicly pronouncing their guilt, not a single peep of a false confession has been elicited.
Lacrosse players face old charges
The DA and the documents
New Yorker Article

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62. Four months after the alleged crime, the officer in overall charge of the investigation produced only two pages of hand-written notes, and a typed 33 page single-spaced report compiled from “memory," apparently months after the party.
Cop says nurse found trauma in Duke case

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63. “Although Nifong has never heard the woman tell her story, he believes her.”
A Stormy DA Who Likes To Fight
The Fluffer That Wasn’t

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64. Alternately, DA Nifong claims to have not spoken to the accuser about the details of the case and to have interviewed her.
Caught By His Own Words
Someone Got it Wrong

65. Nifong continues to play hide the ball by delaying or withholding discovery.
Chesire Letter
Charlotte Observer

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66. Despite a motion requesting they be preserved, tapes of police radio transmissions from the night of the party have been destroyed.
Duke Hoax Hearing

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67. “The police waited two days to obtain a warrant to search the lacrosse players’ house.”

KC Johnson

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68. “The police took four days after interviewing the accuser to track down Roberts, the only “neutral” witness to the alleged events.”

KC Johnson

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69. “Nifong had already obtained the court order for DNA and run his procedurally fraudulent ID before police interviewed either of the accuser’s “drivers” to ascertain her activity before the lacrosse party.”
KC Johnson

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70. The police did not take a statement from the accuser’s “boyfriend” before seeking indictments—even though his DNA was recovered from her.
KC Johnson

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71. “The police have never—to this day—spoken to either Collin Finnerty or Reade Seligmann about their actions on the night of March 13-14.”
KC Johnson

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72. “Although they had knowledge that one or more lacrosse players took photos at the party, the police never attempted to obtain those photos before seeking indictments.”
KC Johnson

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73. “On March 29, Nifong himself stated, “All of the people at the party were Duke lacrosse players with the possible exception of two fraternity people who were there at some point that evening with another member of the Duke lacrosse team.” Yet two days later, the district attorney ordered police to confine the lineup lacrosse players”
KC Johnson

74. Indictments were sought without any effort by police or prosecutors to verify the accusers written statement with the “outcry witness,” Kim Roberts, the only independent “witness” to what the accuser alleges.

TJN: No Law and Order

KC Johnson

“The police never did any follow-up interviews or lineups with Roberts to help validate [the accuser’s] final official story. The police were not even inspired to re-interviewed Ms. Roberts as a potential victim, even though [the accuser’s] April 6th statement said they were holding on to each other during the attack.”

75. “The police and Nifong didn't show any interest in checking out the alleged victim's cell phone and identifying what calls she had made and received before, during and after the alleged rape. The same applies to Ms. Roberts' cell phone.”
TJN: No Law and Order

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76. Police did not search the dorm rooms of Seligmann and Finnerty until after they were arrested.
TJN: No Law and Order

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77. “They [police] failed to get statements from the three workers at the Durham Access medical facility that first had conduct with Ms. Mangum after the incident. Kirk Osborn, a defense attorney learned that one of the workers had taken written notes.”
TJN: No Law and Order

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78. “Investigators never talked to the next door neighbor Jason Bissey until he heard about the rape allegations in the news media days later and came forward.”
TJN: No Law and Order

Questions about Credibility and other Contradictions:

79. The accuser previously made similar allegations against three other men, while also offering no substantiation.
Previous allegations

80. Ms. Roberts indicates that she was separated from the accuser for less than 5 minutes, yet the allegation is that the assault lasted for 30 minutes.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
The Smoking Gun

81. The accuser recanted at least one time on the night of the initial allegations.
Woman altered stories of rape
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs

82. The accuser offered several versions of the alleged attack to several people on the night of the party, two days later at UNC Hospital, and perhaps several weeks later in her long-delayed written statement, during her final photo line-up session, and possibly at other times in between if the police affidavits have any merit.
Woman altered stories of rape
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

83. Kim Roberts has been described alternately by the accuser as a thief; a person who threw, or tried to throw, her out of her car; an accomplice to the assault, a second victim, and an “outcry witness”.
Osborn Motion: Amendment To Motion To Suppress Photographs
N & O: Lacrosse files show gaps in DA's case

84. On March 21, the accuser told Himan that her most recent consensual sexual relations was with her boyfriend a week prior to the party. Yet, the accuser apparently admitted later that she had sex with her boyfriend and her two drivers, who worked for the escort service, around the time of the alleged assault.
Defense sources in Duke lacrosse case speak to local newspaper

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85. City Manager Patrick Baker’s attempt to defend the District Attorney and the Police Department by misrepresenting Ms. Roberts’ continued denial that she witnessed the initiation and conclusion to the alleged assault as a change in her statement to police casts doubt on the credibility of the investigation and the prosecution.
The Accidental Outcry Witness, '60 Minutes' Style

86. DA Nifong appears intent on introducing the theory that an object was used in the assault despite no evidence of such, despite no description of such in the accuser's statements during the April photo ID session, and despite no effort from the police to search for such an object. Reinventing the Theory of the Hoax

87. The Theory of the Hoax Nifong appears intent on presenting to a jury at trial contradicts the "evidence" presented to the grand jury to secure indictments. Reinventing the Theory of the Hoax

88. In court, DA Nifong has claimed that on April 11, the accuser was too traumatized from the alleged assault to speak about the facts of the case yet "60 Minutes' showed video of her performing an enthusiastic pole dance weeks prior to April 11.

Steadfast Proclamations of Innocence

89. From the first day of the allegations, the entire lacrosse team has steadfastly denied that any sex took place, confidently stated that no DNA evidence of sex could be found, and never once suggested or considered that a consent defense would be used or needed.
Lacrosse Captains' Statement

90. “Numerous witnesses can account for every minute of Duke University lacrosse player Collin Finnerty's actions and could testify that he did not assault an exotic dancer at an off-campus party, his father said in a Newsday interview Friday.”
Newsday

91. Six months after the alleged assault, the accused players remain steadfast in their denial that an assault took place.
'60 Minutes'

The above list remains incomplete. As new information becomes available, the quantity of irreconcilable inconsistencies will grow. Further analysis will reveal items neglected from the list. The attempts to explain away some of these contradictions has already added to the list. We expect that further attempts to disguise, rationalize or spin will also lead to additional items that require explanation. Our conclusion remains that it is far simpler, and far more rational, to believe that the accuser is lying than to invent an impossible explanation for each of the above items.